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First matching sock pair arriving on day three

Question

A drawer holds 1010 socks forming 55 pairs, each pair a distinct colour. On Monday two socks are taken at random from the drawer; on Tuesday two more are taken at random from the 88 left; on Wednesday two more are taken from the remaining 66. What is the probability that Monday's and Tuesday's socks are both mismatched but Wednesday's two socks match?

Short answer

26/31526/315. By symmetry of the order in which the three pairs are drawn, this equals the probability that Monday matches and Tuesday and Wednesday don't: 545⋅28−428⋅15−215=26315\tfrac{5}{45}\cdot\tfrac{28-4}{28}\cdot\tfrac{15-2}{15}=\tfrac{26}{315}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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