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Crossings in a random closed polygon in a circle

Question

Choose points P1,P2,…,PnP_1,P_2,\dots,P_n independently and uniformly on the circumference of a circle. Join P1P_1 to P2P_2, P2P_2 to P3P_3, and so on up to Pn−1P_{n-1} to PnP_n, and finally join PnP_n back to P1P_1, giving nn chords. Derive the expected number of crossing points of these chords strictly inside the circle as a function of nn, then evaluate it at n=12n=12.

Short answer

n(n−3)6\tfrac{n(n-3)}{6}, which is 1818 for n=12n=12. Of the (n2)\binom n2 pairs of chords, the nn consecutive pairs share an endpoint and cannot cross inside. Any other pair has four independent uniform endpoints and crosses with probability 13\tfrac13, so by linearity the expectation is 13((n2)−n)\tfrac13\left(\binom n2-n\right).

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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