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First coin toss still ahead after ten tosses

Question

A fair coin is tossed 1010 times. Call a face ahead after nn tosses if it has come up in strictly more than half of those nn tosses. What is the probability that whichever face appeared on the very first toss is ahead once all 1010 tosses are done?

Short answer

12\tfrac12. Say the first toss is heads. Heads is ahead after 1010 tosses exactly when the remaining 99 tosses contain at least 55 heads. With an odd number (99) of fair tosses, at least 55 heads and at most 44 heads are mirror images of each other, so each has probability 12\tfrac12.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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