Expected peak of an increasing run of uniforms
Question
Draw i.i.d. values and let be the first index at which the new value is not a record, i.e. the first with . Then is the largest of the values drawn.
The expectation can be written as with integers ( being Euler's number). Find .
Short answer
. Let be the expected final maximum when the current record is . The next draw falls below with probability (and the game ends at ), or becomes a new record . This gives an integral equation which, after differentiating, becomes with . So and , i.e. , .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Continuous Random Variables and Probability Density Functions
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