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Expected peak of an increasing run of uniforms

Question

Draw i.i.d. Unif(0,1)\text{Unif}(0,1) values X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots and let NN be the first index at which the new value is not a record, i.e. the first nn with Xn<max⁡{X1,…,Xn}X_n<\max\{X_1,\dots,X_n\}. Then XN−1X_{N-1} is the largest of the values drawn.

The expectation E[XN−1]\mathbb{E}[X_{N-1}] can be written as a+bea+be with integers a,ba,b (ee being Euler's number). Find a+ba+b.

Short answer

−1-1. Let f(x)f(x) be the expected final maximum when the current record is xx. The next draw falls below xx with probability xx (and the game ends at xx), or becomes a new record y∈(x,1)y\in(x,1). This gives an integral equation which, after differentiating, becomes f′+f=2xf'+f=2x with f(1)=1f(1)=1. So f(x)=2x−2+e1−xf(x)=2x-2+e^{1-x} and f(0)=e−2f(0)=e-2, i.e. a=−2a=-2, b=1b=1.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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