Even number of heads with one fair coin in the mix
Question
You toss coins at once. Exactly one of them is fair; each of the remaining comes up heads with probability , where . What is the probability that the total number of heads is even?
Short answer
. Condition on the other coins: whatever the parity of their heads count, the fair coin flips the overall parity with probability exactly . So the total is even with probability regardless of and .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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