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Die game that banks on four or five, busts on six

Question

You roll a fair die repeatedly. Each roll of 11, 22 or 33 adds one point to your score and you roll again. The first time a 44, 55 or 66 appears the game ends: on a 44 or 55 you are paid your accumulated score in dollars, and on a 66 you get nothing. What is the expected payout?

Short answer

2/32/3 of a dollar. The number of low rolls before stopping is geometric with mean 11 (each roll is low with probability 12\tfrac12). The stopping face is independent of that count and is a 44 or 55 with probability 23\tfrac23, so the expected payout is 23⋅1\tfrac23\cdot1.

Adapted from Crack, Heard on the Street, Q4.33, p.43; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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