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Coin bias making a tie as likely as one player winning

Question

Brad and Chad each flip their own coin, both with heads probability pp, until they see a first head. Let BB be the event that Brad needs strictly fewer flips than Chad, CC the event that Chad needs strictly fewer flips than Brad, and EE the event that they need the same number. For which pp is P[E]=P[C]\mathbb{P}[E]=\mathbb{P}[C]?

Short answer

p=1/2p=1/2. By symmetry P[B]=P[C]\mathbb{P}[B]=\mathbb{P}[C], so all three events must have probability 13\tfrac13. A tie has probability ∑k≥1(pqk−1)2=p21−q2=p2−p\sum_{k\ge1}\big(pq^{k-1}\big)^2=\tfrac{p^2}{1-q^2}=\tfrac{p}{2-p} with q=1−pq=1-p, and p2−p=13\tfrac{p}{2-p}=\tfrac13 gives p=12p=\tfrac12.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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