Choosing first or second in a triplet race
Question
Two people each name a sequence of three coin outcomes (such as HTH). The second person picks after hearing the first person's choice, and must pick a different triplet. A fair coin is then flipped until one named triplet appears, and its owner wins. Would you prefer to choose first or second, and how likely are you to win?
Short answer
Choose second; you can always win with probability at least . This is Penney's game: for any first choice , the reply beats it with probability between and (for instance THH beats HHT with probability ), so the game is non-transitive and moving second wins.
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.1 Markov Chain, 'Coin triplets C', p.111; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Markov Chains — Transition Matrices and the Markov Property
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Exit Distributions and Exit Times
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