Skip to content

Choosing first or second in a triplet race

Question

Two people each name a sequence of three coin outcomes (such as HTH). The second person picks after hearing the first person's choice, and must pick a different triplet. A fair coin is then flipped until one named triplet appears, and its owner wins. Would you prefer to choose first or second, and how likely are you to win?

Short answer

Choose second; you can always win with probability at least 2/32/3. This is Penney's game: for any first choice x1x2x3x_1x_2x_3, the reply xˉ2x1x2\bar{x}_2x_1x_2 beats it with probability between 23\tfrac23 and 78\tfrac78 (for instance THH beats HHT with probability 34\tfrac34), so the game is non-transitive and moving second wins.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.1 Markov Chain, 'Coin triplets C', p.111; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Probability Fundamentals is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free