Chance of reaching N before going broke
Question
A gambler starts with dollars and repeatedly stakes $1 on a bet that wins with probability and loses with probability . Play stops when the gambler's fortune hits (with ) or . What is the probability that the gambler reaches ?
Short answer
if , and if . The success probability solves with , . The characteristic roots are and , which give the formula; when they coincide the solution is linear.
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Formula, 'Gambler's ruin problem', p.82; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Gambler's Ruin and First Passage Times
- Simple Random Walks — Symmetric and Asymmetric
- Applications: Difference Equations, Markov Chains, and Fibonacci
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