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Chance of reaching N before going broke

Question

A gambler starts with ii dollars and repeatedly stakes $1 on a bet that wins with probability pp and loses with probability q=1−pq=1-p. Play stops when the gambler's fortune hits NN (with 0<i<N0<i<N) or 00. What is the probability that the gambler reaches NN?

Short answer

1−(q/p)i1−(q/p)N\dfrac{1-(q/p)^i}{1-(q/p)^N} if p≠12p\ne\tfrac12, and i/Ni/N if p=12p=\tfrac12. The success probability PiP_i solves Pi=pPi+1+qPi−1P_i=pP_{i+1}+qP_{i-1} with P0=0P_0=0, PN=1P_N=1. The characteristic roots are 11 and q/pq/p, which give the formula; when they coincide the solution is linear.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Formula, 'Gambler's ruin problem', p.82; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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