Cash out the last roll or risk a six
Question
You roll a fair six-sided die. A ends the game and you receive nothing. Any other value gives you a choice: stop and collect , or roll again, with the same rules applying to the new roll. If you play to maximise your expected payout, what is that expected payout?
Short answer
. Given a non-six, the roll averages , which is the value of continuing, so you stop on or more and reroll or . The value then satisfies , so (stopping only on or gives the same value, since you are indifferent at ).
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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