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All random points on a circle in one half

Question

Pick NN points independently and uniformly on the circumference of a circle. What is the probability that some semicircle contains all of them?

Short answer

N/2N−1N/2^{N-1}. For each point, the event that all the others lie in the semicircle running clockwise from it has probability 2−(N−1)2^{-(N-1)}. These NN events are disjoint (at most one point can be the clockwise-first point of such a semicircle) and their union is the target event, so the probability is N⋅21−NN\cdot2^{1-N}.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.1 Basic Probability Definitions and Set Operations, 'N points on a circle', p.62; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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