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Volatility sensitivity of a digital struck at spot

Question

A contract pays 11 at expiry if the stock finishes above today's price S0S_0. How does its Black-Scholes value change as volatility increases?

Short answer

It falls. The value is e−rTN(d2)e^{-rT}N(d_2) with d2=(rσ−σ2)Td_2=\left(\tfrac{r}{\sigma}-\tfrac{\sigma}{2}\right)\sqrt T, which decreases in σ\sigma for r≥0r\ge0; as σ→∞\sigma\to\infty the value tends to 00. Higher volatility drags the lognormal median below the forward, so finishing above S0S_0 becomes less likely.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q2.26, p.18; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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