Multi-period binomial trees showed numerically that as the number of steps , the binomial European call price converges to the Black-Scholes formula . This note derives that convergence analytically.
The proof has a clean structure: write the -step binomial price as a discounted expected payoff under the risk-neutral measure , split the sum into two parts ( and ), apply the central limit theorem to each, and read off and . The key step is recognising that is a binomial tail probability (giving ) and involves a different binomial distribution with a shifted probability (giving ). This shifted probability is the embryonic form of the Girsanov change of measure that underlies continuous-time risk-neutral pricing.
What you should take from this derivation:
- is the risk-neutral probability that the option expires in the money: .
- is the delta of the call — the probability under the stock's own growth measure: .
- The Black-Scholes formula is not an approximation; it is the exact limit of the binomial price as the discrete tree becomes a continuous diffusion.
In this lesson
- Setup: the n-step binomial price
- Splitting into and
- Convergence of to
- Convergence of to
- The Black-Scholes formula
- The two terms decoded
- What the derivation illuminates (and what it leaves open)
Before you start
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