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Financial Instruments, Markets and Conventions / A First Look at Options: Payoffs, Bounds, and the Binomial Model

Derivation — From Binomial Trees to Black-Scholes in the Continuous Limit

Multi-period binomial trees showed numerically that as the number of steps n→∞n \to \infty, the binomial European call price converges to the Black-Scholes formula c=S0N(d1)−Ke−rTN(d2)c = S_0 N(d_1) - Ke^{-rT}N(d_2). This note derives that convergence analytically.
The proof has a clean structure: write the nn-step binomial price as a discounted expected payoff under the risk-neutral measure QQ, split the sum into two parts (U1U_1 and U2U_2), apply the central limit theorem to each, and read off d1d_1 and d2d_2. The key step is recognising that U2U_2 is a binomial tail probability (giving N(d2)N(d_2)) and U1U_1 involves a different binomial distribution with a shifted probability (giving N(d1)N(d_1)). This shifted probability is the embryonic form of the Girsanov change of measure that underlies continuous-time risk-neutral pricing.
What you should take from this derivation:
  • N(d2)N(d_2) is the risk-neutral probability that the option expires in the money: Q(ST>K)Q(S_T > K).
  • N(d1)N(d_1) is the delta of the call — the probability under the stock's own growth measure: QS(ST>K)Q^S(S_T > K).
  • The Black-Scholes formula c=S0N(d1)−Ke−rTN(d2)c = S_0 N(d_1) - Ke^{-rT}N(d_2) is not an approximation; it is the exact limit of the binomial price as the discrete tree becomes a continuous diffusion.

In this lesson

  1. Setup: the n-step binomial price
  2. Splitting into U1U_1 and U2U_2
  3. Convergence of U2U_2 to N(d2)N(d_2)
  4. Convergence of U1U_1 to N(d1)N(d_1)
  5. The Black-Scholes formula
  6. The two terms decoded
  7. What the derivation illuminates (and what it leaves open)

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