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Monte Carlo for a 10-sigma digital

Question

The terminal price of an asset is normally distributed with mean 100100 and standard deviation 11. You want to value a digital call that pays 11 if the price ends above 110110. Why does straightforward Monte Carlo fail here, and how would you fix it?

Short answer

The event is a 10-standard-deviation move, so essentially no paths hit it. Its probability is about 8×10−248\times10^{-24}; plain sampling returns 00 with an enormous relative error. Use importance sampling, e.g. draw from N(110,1)N(110,1) and weight each payoff by the likelihood ratio e−10(x−100)+50e^{-10(x-100)+50}, or simply use the closed form 1−Φ(10)1-\Phi(10).

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q5.20, p.159; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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