Monte Carlo for a 10-sigma digital
Question
The terminal price of an asset is normally distributed with mean and standard deviation . You want to value a digital call that pays if the price ends above . Why does straightforward Monte Carlo fail here, and how would you fix it?
Short answer
The event is a 10-standard-deviation move, so essentially no paths hit it. Its probability is about ; plain sampling returns with an enormous relative error. Use importance sampling, e.g. draw from and weight each payoff by the likelihood ratio , or simply use the closed form .
Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q5.20, p.159; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Monte Carlo Option Pricing
- The Normal Distribution
- Applications — Monte Carlo Estimation, Error, and Confidence Intervals
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