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Extracting the risk-neutral density from call prices

Question

Suppose you observe prices C(K)C(K) of European calls with a fixed expiry TT for every strike KK. Show how to recover the risk-neutral probability density of the stock price at TT.

Short answer

f(K)=erT ∂2C∂K2f(K)=e^{rT}\,\dfrac{\partial^2C}{\partial K^2}. Since C(K)=e−rT∫K∞(s−K)f(s) dsC(K)=e^{-rT}\int_K^\infty(s-K)f(s)\,ds, one derivative in KK gives −e−rTP(ST>K)-e^{-rT}\mathbb{P}(S_T>K) and a second gives e−rTf(K)e^{-rT}f(K) (Breeden-Litzenberger). In practice this is a butterfly spread divided by the squared strike spacing.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 6.2 The Greeks, 'Vega C', p.157; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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