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Racing to the first ace from unequal piles

Question

A shuffled 5252-card deck is cut into a 1313-card pile and a 3939-card pile. You pick a pile and a friend gets the other. Each of you turns cards from the top of your own pile until reaching your first ace; whoever needs fewer cards wins. A pile with no ace loses to the other, and equal counts are a tie (no winner). Which pile should you pick? Answer 1313, 3939, or −1-1 if it makes no difference.

Short answer

3939. The small pile has no ace with probability about 0.300.30, which outweighs its speed when it does contain one. Exact enumeration over the ace split gives a win probability of about 0.5100.510 for the 3939-card pile against 0.4550.455 for the 1313-card pile.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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