Racing to the first ace from unequal piles
Question
A shuffled -card deck is cut into a -card pile and a -card pile. You pick a pile and a friend gets the other. Each of you turns cards from the top of your own pile until reaching your first ace; whoever needs fewer cards wins. A pile with no ace loses to the other, and equal counts are a tie (no winner). Which pile should you pick? Answer , , or if it makes no difference.
Short answer
. The small pile has no ace with probability about , which outweighs its speed when it does contain one. Exact enumeration over the ace split gives a win probability of about for the -card pile against for the -card pile.
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
Start with a free lesson: Probability Fundamentals is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free