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Island logicians and a public eye-colour remark

Question

Fifty perfect logicians live on an island, each with blue or brown eyes; suppose k≥1k\ge1 of them have blue eyes. Nobody may learn their own eye colour directly, and anyone who deduces that their own eyes are blue must leave that night. Everyone sees everyone else. What happens while nothing is said, and what happens after a visitor announces to all of them that at least one islander has blue eyes?

Short answer

Before: nothing. After: all kk blue-eyed islanders leave together on night kk. For k≥2k\ge2 everyone already knows someone has blue eyes, but it is not common knowledge. After the announcement, induction applies: a blue-eyed person sees k−1k-1 others, expects them to leave on night k−1k-1, and when they do not, concludes they are also blue.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q8.20, p.277; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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