Show that Xt is measurable with respect to Ft for each t. If Ft is generated by observations up to t, write Xt as a measurable function of those observations. For a counterexample, identify an event determined by Xt whose truth still depends on future information.
Show that every input is available at the right time
Let Fn=σ(R1,…,Rn) for observed returns Rj. If Xn=fn(R1,…,Rn) with Borel-measurable fn, then for every Borel set A,
{Xn∈A}={(R1,…,Rn)∈fn−1(A)}∈Fn.
Sums, products, maxima and threshold indicators of currently measurable variables are measurable. For processes defined recursively, an induction step often works. If
Xn−1 is measurable at time
n−1, it is measurable at time
n by the
filtration inclusion. Applying a measurable update involving the new return
Rn then yields an
Fn-measurable
Xn.
Let the returns be independent and equally likely to be +1 or −1. Start with V0=0, set H0=0, and choose Hn−1=1{Rn−1=1} for n≥2. The value evolves by Vn=Vn−1+Hn−1Rn. Prove that V is adapted and explain why Hn−1 is a valid position for period n.
By construction,
Hn−1 is measurable with respect to
Fn−1. At
n the position and the new return are known, and the induction argument proves
Vn is
Fn-measurable. The position is available one step before the move. If you also want a
martingale proof, finite-time integrability follows from bounded increments and
E[Hn−1Rn∣Fn−1]=Hn−1E[Rn]=0.
For comparison, consider the process
An=1{Rn+1=1}. Its value is determined only after the next observation. More formally, if
An were
Fn-measurable, then
E[An∣Fn]=An. Independence gives
E[An∣Fn]=1/2, whereas
An takes only values zero and one. This proves the failure of
adaptedness for this filtration.
Adaptedness is separate from integrability and path regularity. For example, a measurable transformation of observed returns is still adapted even if its values have infinite absolute
expectation. That distinction matters when moving from an information check to a martingale proof.
For the induction, write down the measurability of both terms in Vn=Vn−1+Hn−1Rn. The first term is Fn−1-measurable and therefore also Fn-measurable. The position is chosen with Fn−1 information, and the new return is Fn-measurable. Their product is measurable at n. This proves the portfolio value can be recorded at n. A position used to earn the return from n−1 to n has the stronger requirement of being determined before that return.
References and next steps