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Statistical Arbitrage / Signal Research and Alpha Construction

Signal Combination and the Information Coefficient

Once multiple alpha signals have been constructed and neutralised, the key question is how to combine them. Averaging signals ignores their relative quality; using the strongest signal ignores diversification benefits. The information coefficient (IC) — the rank correlation between a signal and the subsequent realised return — provides an objective measure of each signal's predictive value. IC-weighted linear combination is the industry standard for blending signals, and Grinold's Fundamental Law of Active Management (FLAM) shows why combining many weak signals can produce a strong composite: the Information Ratio scales with the square root of the number of independent bets.

Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • define the IC and explain what it measures;
  • compute the IC for a cross-sectional signal using rank correlation;
  • derive the FLAM formula IR≈ICN\text{IR} \approx \text{IC}\sqrt{N} and interpret its assumptions;
  • implement IC-weighted linear signal combination;
  • diagnose signals with unstable or negative IC and decide when to drop them.

In this lesson

    1. The Information Coefficient
    1. The Fundamental Law of Active Management
    1. IC-weighted signal combination
    1. IC decay and signal selection

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