The EMH predicts that no publicly available information can be used to earn risk-adjusted excess returns. Fifty years of empirical tests have produced a catalogue of apparent exceptions — patterns in returns that persist long after they are documented, are well known, and survive many robustness checks. These are the market anomalies. Understanding them is essential for any quantitative analyst or portfolio manager, because:
- Anomalies define the landscape of factor risk premia and potential alpha sources.
- Whether each anomaly is a risk premium (rational pricing) or a mispricing (behavioural) determines whether it is a persistent edge or alpha that will decay as more capital chases it.
- The joint hypothesis problem (any anomaly could be either a model failure or a genuine inefficiency) means no test is definitive — each anomaly requires a judgement call.
This note surveys the main anomalies in four categories: calendar effects, return predictability from past prices, firm characteristic effects, and event studies (semi-strong form tests). For each, it covers the evidence, the leading explanations, and the practical implications for a quantitative fund.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
- describe the January effect and the day-of-week effect with specific empirical magnitudes;
- summarise the evidence from serial correlation, runs tests, and filter rules on weak-form efficiency;
- explain the size effect, book-to-market effect, and earnings/price effect and their relationship;
- describe the event study methodology and what semi-strong form efficiency implies about cumulative abnormal returns;
- state at least five candidate explanations for why a firm-characteristic anomaly might persist.
In this lesson
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- Calendar effects
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- Return predictability from past prices
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- Firm characteristic effects
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- Event studies and semi-strong form efficiency
Before you start
The full lesson, with worked examples and exercise solutions, is for members.
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