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Fixed Income and Interest-Rate Models / No-Arbitrage Pricing and the Risk-Neutral Framework

The Bank Account, Short Rate, and the Fundamental Pricing Equation

Every interest rate model is a machine for converting a specification of the short rate into bond prices. The short rate r(t)r(t) is the instantaneous continuously compounded rate at which the money-market account grows at time tt. It is the most local object in the term structure: a single number that cannot be observed directly but determines, via a risk-neutral expectation, every zero-coupon bond price in the market.

This note establishes the three building blocks of no-arbitrage pricing in interest rate models:

  1. The money-market account B(t)=e∫0tr(s) dsB(t) = e^{\int_0^t r(s)\,ds} — the risk-free savings account that earns the short rate continuously.
  2. The stochastic discount factor D(t,T)=B(t)/B(T)D(t,T) = B(t)/B(T) — the random variable that discounts a payoff at TT back to tt.
  3. The fundamental pricing equation — the statement that every zero-coupon bond price is a risk-neutral conditional expectation of the stochastic discount factor.
The result is both the starting point for all short-rate models and the continuous-time precision that the bootstrapping lesson left implicit.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • define the money-market account, state its SDE, and write it as a stochastic exponential;
  • define the short rate as the instantaneous spot rate and relate it to the bank account;
  • state the stochastic discount factor D(t,T)D(t,T) and interpret it as the random price of 1attime1 at time Tviewedfromtimeviewed from timet$;
  • state the fundamental pricing equation and explain why the expectation is taken under Q\mathbb{Q}, not P\mathbb{P};
  • verify that the formula is consistent with the zero-coupon bond conventions (P(T,T)=1, deterministic short rate).

In this lesson

    1. The money-market account
    1. The stochastic discount factor
    1. The fundamental pricing equation
    1. More general claims
    1. Term structure from the short rate

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