An Amber paper trial for Model M will produce noisy P&L. Without a predeclared contract, every bad day becomes an argument and every breach becomes optional. This note decides what constitutes an incident versus ordinary noise, and produces a monitoring contract plus a short incident note — linking drift, decay and retirement and paper trading and staged deployment without reteaching smoothed monitors from scratch.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
- separate investigative thresholds from freeze rules;
- write a monitoring contract (series, threshold, owner, freeze action);
- draft a one-page incident note for a breach;
- refuse thresholds that have no owner.
In this lesson
- The decision: noise or incident?
- Artifact: monitoring contract and incident note
- Limitation: a threshold with no owner does not stop the model
- Designing thresholds that match the dossier
- Worked triage table for week one
- Desk checkpoint: freeze must freeze
- Pitfall: investigating forever
- Decision card: freeze or not?
Before you start
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