A volatility-regime classifier that drives training cross-entropy to near zero on last year's books usually fails on next month's regime shift: capacity plus unconstrained fitting invents fragile co-adaptations among correlated features. This note separates four levers that keep a network honest — / weight decay, dropout, early stopping, and a held-out validation protocol — so you can constrain what is fitted and when fitting stops without confusing them with the optimiser update.
In this lesson
- Learning objectives
- Capacity without discipline
- Weight decay and penalties
- Dropout as stochastic regularisation
- Early stopping
- Validation discipline (the selection contract)
- How the four levers differ
Before you start
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