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Financial Machine Learning / Probabilistic and Graphical Models

Variational Inference and a Frontier Pointer to Deep Generative Models

EM's ELBO derivation solved a specific problem: fit point-estimate parameters θ\theta under a latent variable zz with a tractable exact posterior p(z∣x;θ)p(z\mid x;\theta). Variational inference removes both restrictions at once — it handles fully Bayesian models where every parameter is itself a random variable, and it works even when the true posterior is not tractable to compute exactly. The tool that makes this possible, the mean-field factorisation, closes out this topic and points forward to the machinery underneath variational autoencoders and the field of deep generative models generally.

In this lesson

  1. Learning objectives
  2. The exact decomposition, revisited
  3. The mean-field factorisation
  4. A pointer forward: deep generative models
  5. Worked example

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