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Probability II / Discrete-Time Markov Chains

Derivation — Existence and Uniqueness of the Stationary Distribution

The previous lesson stated, without proof, that an irreducible recurrent chain has a stationary distribution with π(y)=1/Ey[Ty]\pi(y)=1/\mathbb{E}_y[T_y]. This note supplies that proof via Durrett's "cycle trick" — build a candidate stationary measure by counting expected visits to each state during one excursion away from a fixed reference state, then show it is automatically balanced by the Markov property. The argument is a genuine piece of machinery (not just algebra), and it explains why the mean-return-time formula is true rather than merely asserting it.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • construct the cycle-trick measure μx(y)\mu_x(y) and explain its interpretation as an expected visit count;
  • prove μxp=μx\mu_x p = \mu_x using the Markov property;
  • conclude the mean-return-time formula π(y)=1/Ey[Ty]\pi(y)=1/\mathbb{E}_y[T_y] from the cycle-trick measure.

In this lesson

  1. The cycle-trick measure
  2. The mean-return-time formula

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