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Probability II / Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Queueing Theory

Overview

This topic closes the unit by lifting every major piece of discrete-time Markov chain theory to continuous time, using exactly the exponential-distribution and Poisson-process tools built in the previous topic. The generator matrix QQ replaces the transition matrix pp; the embedded jump chain shows every CTMC is built from a discrete chain plus exponential holding times; and classification, stationary distributions, detailed balance, and convergence all carry over — continuous time even simplifies the convergence theory, since exponential holding times automatically rule out periodicity. The topic's second half specialises this machinery to queueing theory, applied probability's most celebrated application, closing with Burke's theorem (a stable queue's departures are themselves Poisson) and Jackson networks (an entire network of interacting queues has an independent, product-form stationary distribution).

By the end of this topic you should be able to:

  • construct a CTMC from jump rates via the generator matrix and the embedded jump chain;
  • solve for transition probabilities via Kolmogorov's forward and backward equations;
  • classify states, find stationary distributions (directly or via detailed balance), and apply the convergence theorem;
  • solve exit-distribution and exit-time problems using the generator matrix directly;
  • derive and apply the M/M/1 and M/M/s stationary distributions, Little's Law, and Burke's theorem;
  • analyse a queueing network via the Jackson-network product-form theorem.

In this lesson

  1. Contents
  2. The big picture

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