An option payoff is — a function of the terminal stock price , not itself. A P&L is a function of a position size and a price move. Every derivative instrument in the vault's
learn/program/options-pricing/ unit is, formally, a function of a random variable: if is a random variable and is an ordinary function, is itself a new random variable, and this note shows exactly how to get 's PMF from 's. The payoff is the expected value rule (also called LOTUS, the "Law of the Unconscious Statistician"): a shortcut that computes directly from 's own PMF, without ever constructing 's PMF — resolving the tedium flagged at the end of Expectation, Mean, and Variance.Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
- derive the PMF of from the PMF of by summing over pre-images;
- state and apply the expected value rule to compute directly from ;
- recompute a variance using the expected value rule and confirm it matches the definitional (tedious) route;
- recognise an option payoff as a function of an underlying random variable.
In this lesson
- The PMF of a transformed random variable
- The expected value rule (LOTUS)
Before you start
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