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Probability, Statistics and Financial Data / Discrete Random Variables

Functions of Random Variables

An option payoff is max⁡(ST−K,0)\max(S_T-K,0) — a function of the terminal stock price STS_T, not STS_T itself. A P&L is a function of a position size and a price move. Every derivative instrument in the vault's learn/program/options-pricing/ unit is, formally, a function of a random variable: if XX is a random variable and gg is an ordinary function, Y=g(X)Y=g(X) is itself a new random variable, and this note shows exactly how to get YY's PMF from XX's. The payoff is the expected value rule (also called LOTUS, the "Law of the Unconscious Statistician"): a shortcut that computes E[g(X)]\mathbb{E}[g(X)] directly from XX's own PMF, without ever constructing YY's PMF — resolving the tedium flagged at the end of Expectation, Mean, and Variance.
Learning objectives. By the end of this note you should be able to:
  • derive the PMF of Y=g(X)Y=g(X) from the PMF of XX by summing over pre-images;
  • state and apply the expected value rule to compute E[g(X)]\mathbb{E}[g(X)] directly from pXp_X;
  • recompute a variance using the expected value rule and confirm it matches the definitional (tedious) route;
  • recognise an option payoff as a function of an underlying random variable.

In this lesson

  1. The PMF of a transformed random variable
  2. The expected value rule (LOTUS)

Before you start

The full lesson, with worked examples and exercise solutions, is for members.

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