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Econometrics and Financial Time Series / Volatility Estimation Theory

Overview — Volatility Estimation Theory

The QRM volatility lessons specify how conditional variance evolves. This short bridge asks the different econometric question: when do ARMA residuals justify a conditional-variance model, and what does inference remain valid for when the fitted innovation density is not actually Gaussian?

By the end of this note you should be able to:

  • run and interpret Engle’s ARCH LM test;
  • state the quasi-likelihood object and the conditions behind QMLE consistency;
  • distinguish consistent parameter estimation from naive Gaussian standard errors;
  • select robust covariance inference for a fitted GARCH specification.

In this lesson

  1. Contents
  2. The big picture

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