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Econometrics and Financial Time Series / Regression Diagnostics and Generalized Least Squares

Overview — Regression Diagnostics and Generalized Least Squares

Many factor betas, hedge ratios, and event-study coefficients begin with an OLS fit; other estimators may be needed when its assumptions fail. Classical inference — the tt-stats and confidence intervals a desk reports — rests on the Gauss–Markov assumptions that asset returns systematically violate: variances cluster, residuals autocorrelate, functional form breaks at regime shifts, and correlated factors inflate coefficient variance. This topic is the motivation stage of the econometrics unit: restate the classical linear model as the baseline, catalogue how financial data breaks each assumption, and build the diagnostic tests and robust/GLS fixes that restore valid inference before later topics re-engineer the model for serial dependence, unit roots, and endogeneity.

By the end of this note you should be able to:

  • restate the classical linear regression assumptions and the Gauss–Markov theorem, and map each common finance failure mode to a later stage of this unit;
  • detect and respond to heteroscedasticity (White's test, HC standard errors, WLS);
  • detect and respond to serial correlation (Durbin–Watson, Breusch–Godfrey, Newey–West HAC);
  • run specification checks (RESET, omitted-variable logic, dummies, Chow / stability tests) and diagnose multicollinearity via VIF;
  • walk a CAPM or APT-style regression through an end-to-end diagnostic checklist and choose the right fix.

In this lesson

  1. Contents
  2. The big picture

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