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Powers of an exponential product process that are submartingales

Question

Let X1,X2,…X_1,X_2,\dots be i.i.d. exponential with rate λ\lambda, and set M0=1M_0=1, Mn=Mn−1⋅12eλXn/2M_n=M_{n-1}\cdot\tfrac12e^{\lambda X_n/2}, using the filtration generated by the XiX_i. The process MnpM_n^p is a submartingale exactly for a<p<ba<p<b (with 0<a0<a). Find a+ba+b.

Short answer

33. By independence, E[Mn+1p∣Fn]=Mnp 2−pλλ−λp/2=Mnp 21−p2−p\mathbb{E}[M_{n+1}^p\mid\mathcal F_n]=M_n^p\,2^{-p}\tfrac{\lambda}{\lambda-\lambda p/2}=M_n^p\,\tfrac{2^{1-p}}{2-p} for p<2p<2. The factor is at least 11 when 21−p≥2−p2^{1-p}\ge2-p; the curves meet at p=0p=0 and p=1p=1, and for 1<p<21<p<2 the inequality holds strictly (it fails on (0,1)(0,1)). So a=1a=1, b=2b=2.

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