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Mean squared error of the dyadic quadratic variation

Question

Let BB be standard Brownian motion and fix a horizon t>0t>0. Cut [0,t][0,t] into 2n2^n intervals of equal length and write Dk=Bkt/2n−B(k−1)t/2nD_k=B_{kt/2^n}-B_{(k-1)t/2^n}, k=1,…,2nk=1,\dots,2^n. Derive a formula, in terms of tt and nn, for

E[(D12+D22+⋯+D2n2−t)2],\mathbb{E}\Big[\Big(D_1^2+D_2^2+\cdots+D_{2^n}^2-t\Big)^2\Big],

then evaluate it for n=5n=5 and t=1t=1.

Short answer

2t2/2n2t^2/2^n, which is 1/161/16 at t=1t=1, n=5n=5. The sum of squared increments has mean exactly tt, so the quantity is its variance. The increments are independent N(0,t/2n)N(0,t/2^n), each square has variance 2(t/2n)22(t/2^n)^2, and adding 2n2^n of them gives 2t2/2n=2/322t^2/2^n=2/32.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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