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Law of a Brownian path pinned at both ends

Question

A Brownian motion satisfies W0=0W_0=0 and is conditioned on Wt=xW_t=x. For 0<s<t0<s<t, what is the distribution of WsW_s?

Short answer

N ⁣(stx,  s(t−s)t)N\!\left(\tfrac{s}{t}x,\;\tfrac{s(t-s)}{t}\right). (Ws,Wt)(W_s,W_t) is bivariate normal with Cov⁡=s\operatorname{Cov}=s and Var⁡(Wt)=t\operatorname{Var}(W_t)=t, so Gaussian conditioning gives mean stx\tfrac{s}{t}x (linear interpolation) and variance s−s2ts-\tfrac{s^2}{t}. The variance is largest at the midpoint and vanishes at both ends.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q3.52, p.85; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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