Expected time to reach plus or minus one
Question
A standard Brownian motion starts at . What is the expected time until it first reaches either or ?
Short answer
. is a martingale, so optional stopping at the exit time gives . Since , (in general, exiting takes on average).
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 5.4 Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, 'Stopping time A', p.130; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- The Optional Stopping Theorem
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
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