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Rolling a die until a value repeats

Question

You roll a fair six-sided die over and over, stopping on the first roll that shows a value seen earlier. Let rr be the total number of rolls and pr=P(r)p_r=\mathbb{P}(r).

(a) Find p3p_3.

(b) Find p1+p2+⋯+p10p_1+p_2+\cdots+p_{10}.

(c) Find the probability that r=5r=5 given that the game lasts at least three rolls.

Short answer

(a) 5/185/18. (b) 11. (c) 2/92/9. For (a), the second roll must be new (56\tfrac56) and the third a repeat (26\tfrac26). For (b), only six distinct values exist, so a repeat must occur by roll 77 and all probability lies within r≤10r\le10. For (c), p5=56⋅46⋅36⋅46=527p_5=\tfrac56\cdot\tfrac46\cdot\tfrac36\cdot\tfrac46=\tfrac5{27}, divided by P(r≥3)=56\mathbb{P}(r\ge3)=\tfrac56.

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