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GARCH models for time-varying volatility

Question

What is GARCH and why is it used for financial returns?

Short answer

Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity: a model where variance depends on past shocks and past variance. The basic form is σt2=ω+αϵt−12+βσt−12\sigma_t^2=\omega+\alpha\epsilon_{t-1}^2+\beta\sigma_{t-1}^2. It captures volatility clustering and fat-tailed unconditional returns and gives volatility forecasts that mean-revert to a long-run level; variants such as EGARCH and GJR add asymmetry so falls raise volatility more than rises.

Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 35, p.164; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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