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Explaining the GARCH(1,1) volatility model

Question

Explain in plain language what a GARCH(1,1) model does, then write down its equations and say what each parameter represents.

Short answer

Variance today is a weighted mix of a long-run level, yesterday's squared shock and yesterday's variance. With rt=μ+ϵtr_t=\mu+\epsilon_t, ϵt=σtzt\epsilon_t=\sigma_t z_t, the model is σt2=ω+αϵt−12+βσt−12\sigma_t^2=\omega+\alpha\epsilon_{t-1}^2+\beta\sigma_{t-1}^2: ω>0\omega>0 sets the floor, α\alpha is the reaction to news, β\beta is persistence. With α+β<1\alpha+\beta<1 volatility mean-reverts to ω/(1−α−β)\omega/(1-\alpha-\beta), reproducing volatility clustering.

Adapted from Crack, Heard on the Street, Q3.12, p.35; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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