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Estimating the fleet size from six serial numbers

Question

Vehicles in a fleet carry distinct serial numbers 1,2,…,N1,2,\dots,N, with NN unknown. You see six of them at random, numbered 38,17,59,42,9738, 17, 59, 42, 97 and 120120. Using a frequentist (unbiased) estimator, what is your best estimate of NN?

Short answer

139139. With sample maximum m=120m=120 and k=6k=6 observations, the gaps below the maximum are, on average, equal: the 114114 unseen numbers below 120120 are split into 66 gaps of about 1919, so one expects another 1919 above the maximum. Equivalently the minimum-variance unbiased estimator is m+mk−1=120+20−1=139m+\tfrac{m}{k}-1=120+20-1=139.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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