Estimating the fleet size from six serial numbers
Question
Vehicles in a fleet carry distinct serial numbers , with unknown. You see six of them at random, numbered and . Using a frequentist (unbiased) estimator, what is your best estimate of ?
Short answer
. With sample maximum and observations, the gaps below the maximum are, on average, equal: the unseen numbers below are split into gaps of about , so one expects another above the maximum. Equivalently the minimum-variance unbiased estimator is .
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