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Choosing the drift that makes an exponential walk fair

Question

Let X1,X2,…X_1,X_2,\dots be independent, each equal to +1+1 or −1-1 with probability 12\tfrac12, and let cc be a constant. Start from M0=1M_0=1 and for n≥1n\ge1 put Mn=eXn+c Mn−1M_n=e^{X_n+c}\,M_{n-1}. Exactly one value of cc makes (Mn)(M_n) a martingale for the filtration generated by the XiX_i. Writing that value as c=−log⁡(aeb+ced)c=-\log\left(ae^b+ce^d\right) (natural log), compute a+b+c+da+b+c+d.

Short answer

11. We need E[eXn+c]=1\mathbb{E}[e^{X_n+c}]=1, i.e. ec⋅12(e+e−1)=1e^{c}\cdot\tfrac12(e+e^{-1})=1, so c=−log⁡(12e1+12e−1)c=-\log\left(\tfrac12e^{1}+\tfrac12e^{-1}\right). Thus a=c=12a=c=\tfrac12, b=1b=1, d=−1d=-1, and the sum is 12+1+12−1=1\tfrac12+1+\tfrac12-1=1.

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