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Which comes first in coin tosses, HHT or HTT

Question

Audrey tosses a fair coin over and over until either the pattern HHTHHT or the pattern HTTHTT appears as three consecutive tosses. What is the probability that HHTHHT shows up first?

Short answer

23\tfrac23. Leading tails are irrelevant, so start from a head and look at the next two tosses. HHHH guarantees HHTHHT will win, because the run of heads must end with HHTHHT. HTHT then TT gives HTTHTT, and HTHT then HH returns to the starting state. So HHTHHT wins with probability 1/21/2+1/4=23\tfrac{1/2}{1/2+1/4}=\tfrac23.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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