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Which comes first, HTH or HHT

Question

A fair coin is tossed repeatedly and the results are recorded. You win if the pattern HTH shows up before the pattern HHT; if HHT shows up first, your friend wins. Find the probability that your friend is the winner.

Short answer

23\tfrac23. Both patterns pass through HT. Look at the first HT: if the toss before it was H, HHT has already appeared (probability 12\tfrac12); otherwise HTH needs the next toss to be H (probability 14\tfrac14), and on a T the race effectively restarts. So HHT wins with probability 1/23/4=23\tfrac{1/2}{3/4}=\tfrac23.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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