Which comes first, HTH or HHT
Question
A fair coin is tossed repeatedly and the results are recorded. You win if the pattern HTH shows up before the pattern HHT; if HHT shows up first, your friend wins. Find the probability that your friend is the winner.
Short answer
. Both patterns pass through HT. Look at the first HT: if the toss before it was H, HHT has already appeared (probability ); otherwise HTH needs the next toss to be H (probability ), and on a T the race effectively restarts. So HHT wins with probability .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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