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Two parked cars creeping forward to spaces 3 and 4

Question

A row of four parking spaces, numbered 11 to 44, has cars in spaces 11 and 22 while 33 and 44 are empty. Each minute, a car may move ahead by one space only if (i) that space was empty at the start of the minute and (ii) the car is not already in space 44. Every car allowed to move does so with probability 12\tfrac12, independently. So in the first minute only the car in space 22 is allowed to move. What is the expected number of minutes until the cars sit in spaces 33 and 44?

Short answer

20/320/3. Solve a small Markov chain on the cars' positions. Getting from (1,2)(1,2) to (1,3)(1,3) takes 22 minutes on average. From (1,3)(1,3) both cars may move, so the next minute leads to (2,4)(2,4), (1,4)(1,4), (2,3)(2,3) or stays put, each with probability 14\tfrac14; solving the expected-time equations from there gives E13=143E_{13}=\tfrac{14}{3} and E12=203E_{12}=\tfrac{20}{3}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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