Two parked cars creeping forward to spaces 3 and 4
Question
A row of four parking spaces, numbered to , has cars in spaces and while and are empty. Each minute, a car may move ahead by one space only if (i) that space was empty at the start of the minute and (ii) the car is not already in space . Every car allowed to move does so with probability , independently. So in the first minute only the car in space is allowed to move. What is the expected number of minutes until the cars sit in spaces and ?
Short answer
. Solve a small Markov chain on the cars' positions. Getting from to takes minutes on average. From both cars may move, so the next minute leads to , , or stays put, each with probability ; solving the expected-time equations from there gives and .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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