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Token transfers on three-dice totals of 11 and 14

Question

Players A and B each hold 12 tokens. They roll three dice repeatedly, ignoring every roll whose total is neither 11 nor 14. A total of 11 makes B pass one token to A; a total of 14 makes A pass one token to B. Play continues until one player owns all 24 tokens. What is the probability A ends up with everything?

Short answer

11+(5/9)12≈0.99914\dfrac{1}{1+(5/9)^{12}}\approx0.99914. Totals 11 and 14 occur in 27 and 15 of the 216 outcomes, so each counted roll moves a token to A with probability p=914p=\tfrac{9}{14}. This is gambler's ruin starting halfway between 0 and 24; with r=1−pp=59r=\tfrac{1-p}{p}=\tfrac59 the win probability is 1−r121−r24=11+r12\tfrac{1-r^{12}}{1-r^{24}}=\tfrac{1}{1+r^{12}}.

Adapted from OpenQuant; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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