Token transfers on three-dice totals of 11 and 14
Question
Players A and B each hold 12 tokens. They roll three dice repeatedly, ignoring every roll whose total is neither 11 nor 14. A total of 11 makes B pass one token to A; a total of 14 makes A pass one token to B. Play continues until one player owns all 24 tokens. What is the probability A ends up with everything?
Short answer
. Totals 11 and 14 occur in 27 and 15 of the 216 outcomes, so each counted roll moves a token to A with probability . This is gambler's ruin starting halfway between 0 and 24; with the win probability is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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