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Three random chords on a circle avoiding crossings

Question

Six points are placed independently and uniformly on the circumference of a circle. They are then grouped uniformly at random into three pairs, and each pair is joined by a chord. Find the probability that no two of the chords cross.

Short answer

1/31/3. Only the cyclic order of the points matters. There are 5⋅3⋅1=155\cdot3\cdot1=15 equally likely ways to pair six points, and the number of non-crossing pairings of six points in convex position is the Catalan number C3=5C_3=5, giving 515=13\tfrac{5}{15}=\tfrac13.

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