Third throw landing farther out than the first
Question
Three darts are thrown at a board with identical, independent skill, so their distances from the bullseye are i.i.d. continuous random variables. Given that dart two landed farther out than dart one, find the chance that dart three also lands farther out than dart one.
Short answer
. Only the ranking of the three distances matters, and all orderings are equally likely. Of the orderings with , the third exceeds the first in ( and ).
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Formula, 'Dart game', p.74; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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