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Survival odds on a plank with sharks at one end

Question

A blindfolded person stands on a plank 55 metres long, at an integer number xx of metres from the end over the sharks (so 0<x<50<x<5). Each step moves them exactly 11 metre towards one end or the other, with equal probability. Stepping off the shark end is fatal; stepping off the other end lands them safely on the ship. What is the probability they survive, as a function of xx?

Short answer

x/5x/5. This is the symmetric gambler's ruin: the survival probability s(x)s(x) satisfies s(x)=12s(x−1)+12s(x+1)s(x)=\tfrac12s(x-1)+\tfrac12s(x+1) with s(0)=0s(0)=0 and s(5)=1s(5)=1, so it is linear in xx. Equivalently, the position is a martingale.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q3.23, p.82; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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