Stay or switch urns after drawing a one-dollar chip
Question
Two identical-looking urns each hold ten chips. Urn A has four chips and six chips; urn B has three chips and seven chips. You choose an urn at random, draw one chip, and it is a chip (it is not replaced). You may now draw a second chip either from the same urn or from the other urn, and you are paid the value of this second chip. With the best choice, what is your expected payout?
Short answer
dollars (stay). Seeing a chip makes urn A more likely, with posterior versus . Staying pays from A and from B on average, giving , while switching gives only .
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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