Skip to content

Spin or not after a survived pull with adjacent bullets

Question

A six-shot revolver has two bullets in adjacent chambers, and the cylinder is spun at random. Your opponent pulls the trigger first and survives. You may now either spin the cylinder again or fire the next chamber directly. By how much does your survival probability without spinning exceed your survival probability with spinning?

Short answer

112\tfrac{1}{12}. Spinning gives survival 46=23\tfrac46=\tfrac23. Without spinning, the opponent fired one of the four empty chambers, equally likely, and only one of those is followed by a bullet, so you survive with 34\tfrac34. The gap is 34−23=112\tfrac34-\tfrac23=\tfrac1{12}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Probability Fundamentals is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free