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Smallest class where a shared birthday is likely

Question

Take a year of 365365 equally likely birthdays. What is the smallest class size for which the chance that two or more students share a birthday exceeds one half?

Short answer

2323. The chance that nn birthdays are all different is ∏k=0n−1365−k365\prod_{k=0}^{n-1}\tfrac{365-k}{365}. It first drops below 12\tfrac12 at n=23n=23 (about 0.4930.493), so the collision probability is then about 0.5070.507.

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