Sex ratio when families stop at a daughter
Question
In a remote community every couple keeps having children until their first daughter is born, then stops. Boys and girls are equally likely at each birth, independently. In the long run, what fraction of the population is female?
Short answer
. Every birth is still an independent fair coin, and a stopping rule cannot change the expected proportion of girls among births. Concretely, each couple has exactly one girl and on average children, so half of all children are girls.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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