Second seed upsetting the top seed in a 16-player final
Question
A knockout tournament with a random bracket has players of distinct ratings, so it lasts rounds including the final. In any game the higher-rated player wins with probability , where . Write the probability that the second-ranked player beats the top-ranked player in the final as a function of and , and evaluate it for and .
Short answer
. They must start in opposite halves (probability ), each must win all earlier games (), and then the underdog must win (). For , : .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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