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Second seed upsetting the top seed in a 16-player final

Question

A knockout tournament with a random bracket has 2n2^n players of distinct ratings, so it lasts nn rounds including the final. In any game the higher-rated player wins with probability pp, where 12<p<1\tfrac12<p<1. Write the probability that the second-ranked player beats the top-ranked player in the final as a function of nn and pp, and evaluate it for n=4n=4 and p=34p=\tfrac34.

Short answer

243/10240243/10240. They must start in opposite halves (probability 2n−12n−1\tfrac{2^{n-1}}{2^n-1}), each must win all n−1n-1 earlier games (p2n−2p^{2n-2}), and then the underdog must win (1−p1-p). For n=4n=4, p=34p=\tfrac34: 815(34)614=24310240\tfrac{8}{15}\left(\tfrac34\right)^6\tfrac14=\tfrac{243}{10240}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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